Updated 2020-02-11 05:42 UTC - Why the infected count is slowing down while the dead count is still exponential? + Lastest News section added!
Real-time prediction counter and an interactive chart of 3 day forecast of the novel coronavirus infected and dead. Updated daily. Predictions are blue points. Click the labels to toggle infected count, death toll or log scale below. Hover over a data point for details.
Above is real-time intraday prediction based on the model below.
The prediction of the outbreak progression is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will at first follow an exponential curve, at least at the beginning of the outbreak. Over time, instead, the s-curve shape will become dominant. The log scale chart of the time-series shows that that doubling time is around 1.7 days (geometric progression). Since the parameters of the geometric progression are changing, the prediction is calculated using only the latest 5 data points.
The time-series graph above tracks 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The basic reproduction number is around 2.62 new infected per one sick. The most frequently reported symptoms are fever, cough, muscle aches, and tiredness. Time from exposure to developing symptoms (incubation) of the virus is 2 - 10 days.
The data are sourced from various web pages since I found no good single source with both infected and dead historical data. The historical infected were collected from a wiki based on the expectation that before 2020-01-28, almost all infected and dead were in China.
The data point for 2020-01-29 comes from the global estimates on the wiki linked refered to as "As of 30 January 2020". The historical data for the death toll comes from an page I cannot find now. And are then combined with the data point from NY Times 2020-01-27 and the wiki one for 2020-01-27.
If there will be enough interest in the page, I will revise the sources of the data e.g. sina.cn.
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